Weaving Our Way Through the Fourth Turning

Welcome to the first issue of the Apples to Apples newsletter. I decided to write this because some of my friends and family, knowing that I’ve performed and shared research on Covid and other issues, were interested in hearing more regarding what has been happening over the past couple years.

I am concerned with the future of our society and the environment in which we live. I have watched social and environmental decay occur in my lifetime, and while I do not propose returning fully to the society of my youth, I perceive the possibility of integrating that earlier nuclear family-based culture with our more scientifically advanced society of today.

I want to see the best of both worlds, but this requires a new social contract – one that honors natural principles over the greed and dishonesty so prevalent today. In that sense, my goal is to provide information that outlines what I see as important events in today’s world, combined with movements, both current and former, that shed light upon possibilities for the future.

To understand this, it is necessary to evaluate how we got to where we are now. That requires delving into the past, including events in the past for which publicity has been scant and in some cases suppressed.

Some of the possibilities I see for our collective future are dark. Others show hope. All will be challenging because the complexity of today’s increasingly resource-constrained world complicates tackling our emerging challenges. Some of these challenges are social, some financial, some environmental – all are spiritual at a more fundamental level.

My goal in this newsletter is to provide, concisely as possible, pointers toward possible futures, supported by historical references and evidence-based analysis. It is not my intent to convince anyone of anything, but instead to open a broader discussion capturing ideas and concepts not currently present in the mainstream narrative.

I am not an expert on the topics I plan to present; therefore, I shall highlight the knowledgeable, and often influential, people I have discovered so they can tell their stories and share their data and viewpoints, allowing the reader to benefit from their wisdom, as I have.

Albert Einstein stated “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” In that vein, new perspectives are needed integrating understanding of the past with knowledge of current conditions.

Why did I call this newsletter Apples to Apples? In the game Apples to Apples, all players are dealt red apple cards. One person playing the role of the judge takes a green apple card from the top of the deck, turns it face up in the middle of the table and reads it aloud. The other players select a red apple card that they think best matches the adjective on the green apple card. The judge then reads each of the red card submissions, and after some thought, chooses what he or she considers the best match. It’s a lot of fun to play.

In the Apples to Apples newsletter, you, the reader, are the judge. Your current world view is your green apple card. I present a piece of information, idea, or concept (my red apple card), and you decide if there is a fit.

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The Fourth Turning

For this initial newsletter, I wish to present the concept of The Fourth Turning. This idea was introduced in a book by the same name, written in 1997, which predicted the type of social and financial upheaval emerging today in the USA. Written by historian/demographers Neil Howe and William Strauss, The Fourth Turning is based on their studies of America’s demography, social, political, and economic movements since its founding.

Websters dictionary defines demography as, “the statistical study of human populations especially with reference to size and density, distribution, and vital statistics”. Howe and Strauss took demographic studies one step further, overlaying them on social cycles, particularly looking at generational cycles. They deduced a theory that each generation carries its own paradigm of the world, and that these paradigms generally repeat in cycles of four, or at least they rhyme.

The book describes these generational paradigms as a ‘generational persona’, each lasting around 20–25 years. During each of these time periods, a new social, political, and economic climate (mood) exists. A ‘turning’ occurs as society moves into the next 20–25-year period. They proposed that these periods are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 100 years).

Howe and Strauss describe these four periods as follows:

First Turning – The High
The High follows a period of Crisis. During the High, the population is comfortable with strong institutions and places less emphasis on individualism. Because society has survived the recent Crisis, it is confident and collectively agrees on a common future. This can be stifling for those with an individualist mind-set. The most recent US First Turning was from the end of WWII until the John F. Kennedy assassination in 1963.

The idealistic ‘Prophet’ generation is born during the High. These Prophets grow up during an indulged period where society and economy are growing and moving forward, move their focus to morals and principles during midlife, and late in life become the elders guiding society through the next Crisis. For our current cycle, these Prophets are the Baby Boomers.

Second Turning – Awakening
During the Awakening, people begin to awaken to the prior loss of personal autonomy and individualism. Institutional control is challenged as people grow tired of socially enforced discipline. There is a movement to explore self-awareness, authenticity, and spirituality. Those born during the High consider that period as lacking in culture and spirituality. America’s most recent Awakening began with the demonstrations and revolts of the 1960’s and ended with tax revolts in the 1980’s.

The ‘Nomad’ generation is born during the Awakening. Nomads grow up in an environment relatively under-protected as society re-evaluates its ideals and spiritual perspectives. While the Prophets/Baby Boomers are attacking institutional structures, the Nomads grow up poised to be pragmatic, self-directed midlife leaders in the approaching next Crisis period. Today’s Nomad generation is referred to as Generation Xers.

Third Turning – Unraveling
During the Unraveling, institutions weaken and lose trust while individualism grows. The Unraveling is an outgrowth of the prior Awakening where the social and economic growth from the High began to wane, and now is being ‘spent’ during a period of growing indulgence as people want to enjoy fruits of prior labor. The Unraveling exhibits a pragmatic, self-reliant, hands-off society. America’s most recent Awakening started in the 1980’s with the  relaxing of rules on Wall Street, leading to the ‘Greed is Good’ 90’s, and culminated prior to the 2008/2009 Great Financial Crisis.

The Hero generation is born during the Unraveling. They grow up overly protected by their Prophet/Baby Boomer parents, becoming team-oriented optimists as they reach midlife during the ensuing Crisis period. Today’s Heroes are more typically known as Millennials.

Fourth Turning – Crisis
The key feature of the Crisis period is destruction. Institutional and social structures are torn down and rebuilt. War may ensue. It is a cathartic period that could lead to either dissolution of the nation; or to a revival of culture, community purpose, and inclusivity, thus setting the nation on a new path during the next High. Society strives to develop a public consensus, while institutions gain strength and power. Society develops an expectation for conformity and personal sacrifice.

America’s most recent Crisis period began with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and ended with the end of WWII. The Hero generation of that period went forth following the war to build a society of confidence and optimism, culminating with putting a man on the moon during the subsequent High period. The book proposes that America is today in the midst of a Fourth Turning, having started just prior to the Great Financial Crisis.

The Artist generation is born during the Crisis. The Artists face danger early in their lives, socially and possibly physically. The Crisis dominates early years of the young Artists. Today’s Artists are known as the GenZ or Zoomer generation.

A simple summary of this theory could be stated as -
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

The principles described in The Fourth Turning can apply to any country; however, this book focuses primarily on America. I listened to this book on Audible last year and found it interesting that, even though it was written in 1997, its predictions for our current time were uncannily resonant with today’s events.

I have listened to author Neil Howe on numerous interviews discussing this theory. His co-author, William Strauss, passed away in 2007, but Neil generously shares his thoughts regularly on numerous platforms. To appreciate his current view on where we are in the Fourth Turning, I recommend the following interview with Adam Taggart on Adam’s Wealthion YouTube channel. I particularly like this interview because in it, Neil Howe provides much background for people not familiar with his work.

A few possibly unfamiliar abbreviations/acronyms used in the interview:

• GFC – Great Financial Crisis (of 2008/2009)

• MMT – Modern Monetary Theory (a currently popular financial theory espousing that money printing is good for the economy)

• Fed – Federal Reserve Bank

 If interested, you can find Part 2 of this interview here, where Adam and Neil primarily discuss potential financial impacts as we move further into the Fourth Turning.

As a side note, Adam Taggart does financial interviews on his Wealthion channel. I find his guests to be some of the finest financial minds in the business. If you are interested in economy and finance, you may want to check out more of his interviews. Discussions with his guests generally require a minimum level of financial understanding, and sometimes a high level.

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